Market in Review 12/13/2023
MARKET REPORT
Review:
– Dollar smoked
– The Summary of Economic Projections showed that the FOMC expects the Fed Funds rate to be 4.75% vs 5.25% previously projected
– Dollar down vs EVERYTHING. AUD +1.65%, Euro -0.75%, Pound +0.4% (underperformer, hint, it’s a buy), Yen SMOKED -2.3%! (Yesterday you got long and were wrong. 140 on the cards)
– Gold SURGES. Above the crucial 2040 level. Expect more.
– Silver up over 4% Rejection of lows, now in a huge bull market. Buy it. Now.
– Equities (unsurprisingly) love the news. +1.5% across the board.
– Crypto Rallies HARD
– Crude rallies but still deep in a bear market.
Market in Review 12/1/2023
MARKET REPORT
Review:
– Dollar Down post Powell. Dollar down vs AUD at 66.71 +67 pips/+1%, UP SMALLS vs EUR at 91.89 +9 pips/0.1%, down 83 pips vs Pound 127.09 +0.65%, and smoked vs the Yen, 146.85 -135 pips/0.9%.
Dow/ES UP (D up 300 points) +0.9% & 0.6%, ND up smalls 0.3%, closes above 16k.
Crude down 2%, Gold and Silver kick. Coins surge with BTC +3%, ETH up 2.5%
– POWELL (more hawkish expected): “It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease”, adding that the Fed is “prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so.” The Fed Chair said the central bank is making decisions meeting-by-meeting and based on the totality of the incoming data. MORE DOVISH THAN EXPECTED.
– 130bps of cuts are now priced across 2024 vs 115bps before Powell, with a 10% implied cut now in January and a 75% implied cut in March
– Fed Goolsbee (Dovish remarks): “Fed is on track to achieve 2% inflation”, with inflation coming down exactly as the Fed wants, “there’s no evidence that we’ve stalled at 3%.” He said housing inflation is the “highlight” of what he is watching, saying if it returns to pre-COVID levels, then the Fed would be on the path to 2%.
– ISM Manu Exp: 47.6 Actual: 46.7
– Strong Chinese PMI data.
